shortage can assume crisis proportions.
Pakistan has been facing an unprecedented energy crisis since the last several years. The problem becomes severe during the summers. Large numbers of users have to be disconnected from the energy supply system to prevent overloading the generating stations (load shedding). On occasions the urban dwellers had to suffer load shedding of 8-10 hours everyday. During the same time rural consumers suffered it for up to 20 hours at a stretch.
Almost two years ago the Chairman Water and Power Authority (WAPDA) admitted that his organization could not meet the current demand for electricity. It is surprising such a senior person took so long to discover this problem. The government talked about Pakistan’s supposedly booming economy but failed to understand the need for meeting the energy needs of the boom. General Musharraf (R) (ex-President) after becoming Chief Executive used to talk about building dams especially Kalabagh Dam.Very few power plants have since been set up. The present energy crisis is totally due to lack of forecasting and planning.
Any power system has 3 major parts:
- 1. Generation system
2. Transmission system
3. Distribution system
Generally speaking the major technical causes of the shortfall in the availability of electrical energy in Pakistan are:
- • Insufficient installed generating capacity.
• Transmission system unable to transmit the greater load now imposed upon it.
• Grid Stations and related equipment unable to carry the load imposed.
• Distribution System was built to carry a smaller power and hence unable to cater to existing demands [Gelling at el 1988].
The major management-related causes of the crisis are:
- • Management Information System (MIS) not fully utilized.
• Failure to forecast and plan for the future.
• Failure to set up new generating stations in time.
• No new Transmission/Distribution networks & grid stations setup.
• Unexpectedly rapid growth of load.
2. Present Situation of Crisis
A careful examination clearly indicates that although Pakistan’s installed generating capacity will increase, the shortfall will continue to exist [Federal Bureau of Statistics 1998]. The government must take steps to overcome this situation.
3.1. Short term solution
- 3.1.1 Line losses control
- 3.1.2 Improving Power generating capacity
It is an unfortunate fact that WAPDA and IPPs thermal power plants are running at an average plant factor of about 50 percent. This means they are producing only 50% of their installed capacity. They are not being used to deliver their full power. Internationally it is quite usual to have thermal power plants operating at 75 to 80 percent plant factor. Operating the power stations at higher plant factors demands better maintenance procedures there. It is felt that operating the plants at a higher plant factor will cause them to deliver 20 to 30 %more energy to the system. This will alleviate the present shortage to a significant extent. Improving the power plant factor of the existing plant is far more economical then setting up new power plants.
3.2 Medium Term solutions
The policy makers of Pakistan talk about making dams and setting up nuclear power plants but do not understand the importance and benefits of alternate energy (renewable source of energy) sources such as solar, windmill energy, etc. These are cheap and quick methods for producing electricity. Pakistan is very blessed because abundant solar energy is available. Similarly wind energy is readily available in the coastal areas and throughout the winter months in Baluchistan. These energy sources if tapped can be of great help in reducing the current demand supply gap.
- 3.2.1 Wind Energy
America, Canada and China have invested large sums of money into research and development in order to obtain maximum energy from wind. Wind power is now the fastest-growing energy source worldwide [US Department of Energy 2002]. Total
worldwide production of electrical energy from wind is around 30000MW. Germany, with over 12,000 megawatts of wind power at the end of 2002, leads the world in generating capacity. Spain and the United States, at 4,800 and 4,700 megawatts, are second and third. Many predict that, with the development of more efficient wind turbines, wind energy will provide an increasingly large proportion of electrical production in the U.S. Tiny Denmark is fourth with 2,900 megawatts, and India is fifth with 1,700 megawatts.
Although a score of countries now generate electricity from wind, a second wave of major players is coming onto the field, including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Brazil, and China. However, land clearing for vast "wind farms" may cause concern to environmentalists.
- 3.2.2 Solar Energy
Pakistan has high potential of renewable energy sources. A very large part of the rural population does not have the facility of electricity because they are either too remote or it is found too expensive to connect their villages to the national grid station. Pakistan being in the sunny belt is ideally located to take advantage of solar energy. This energy sources is widely distributed and abundantly available in the country. During last 15 years Pakistan has shown quite encouraging progress in the use of photovoltaic cells. Currently electrical power derived from solar energy is being used is being used in some public parks. These include Khalid bin Waleed Park in Peshawar and the Race Course Park in Rawalpindi. The Public Health department has installed solar water pump for drinking purposes in some parts of the country. Both public and private sector are playing their role in up grading of photovoltaic system in the country. If this technology is used in large scale commercial production of electricity the problem of energy shortage can be substantially reduced.
3.3. Long term solution
- 3.3.1 Coal Potential in Pakistan
Pakistan has the 5th largest coal reserve in the World, amounting to approximately 185.175 billion tones. Thar has largest reserve in the country that is approximately 75.5 billion tones. Pakistan can generate more than 100,000 MW of electricity for next 30 years if it uses all coal available to it. At present Pakistan generates only 0.79% of its total electricity from coal [WAPDA Annual report 2007-08]. Coal contributes approximately 39% of the total global primary energy demand. Share of coal in total electricity produced in different countries is
- PAKISTAN 0.79%
USA 56%
UK 58%
China 81%
- 3.3.2 Hydro-electric power potential
Pakistan has a huge potential to produce electric power from hydro-electric power plants. In table 5 presents a view of electric power generation with power plants whose feasibility study has been completed or is under process. Construction of all these plants gives almost 55,000 MW. This easily meets the electrical energy requirement of Pakistan for next 20-25 years.
From the table 4, 5 we can see that hydro-electric power has a great potential. Some details of these projects are given in table 4,5.These plants can give low cost electricity. As they are run of river plants, they can be easily installed with minimum cost and in short time.
Conclusion
The policy makers of Pakistan do talk about making dams and setting up nuclear power plants but do not understand the importance and benefits of alternate energy (renewable source of energy) sources such as solar, windmill Tidal, Wave, and Geothermal energy, etc. They are cheap and quick methods for producing electricity. Pakistan is a very blessed country because solar energy is available in most cities all year round. Similarly wind energy is readily available in the coastal areas and in interior Baluchistan during winter. These energy sources if tapped can be of great help in reducing the current demand supply gap. The possibility of using coal and hydro-electric run of river plants must also be considered seriously for the long term.
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